Will the futures price of the hottest crude oil se

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Will crude oil futures see $20?

UBS announced ten major events that may happen this year in 2008, one of which is that crude oil may see $20. Investors may find this figure a little incredible. However, we should see that there is nothing impossible in the capital market. A few years ago, we could not have known that the copper price would break through $3000 and reach above $8000. Similarly, we would not have known that crude oil would rise to $150. Therefore, we cannot deny the possibility of crude oil showing $20. At present, the crude oil futures price hovers around $40, and the futures price has never formed an upward market, but there has been no downward breakthrough. How should we see the current and future crude oil prices

from the trend of the capital market since 2009, it can be seen that the futures price of crude oil did not follow other commodities out of the rebound market, but followed the Dow Jones index out of the volatile market. The stock market is the barometer of the economy, and crude oil is not. In the bulk commodity market, crude oil is one of the commodities that are relatively sensitive to the economic response. Its trend is similar to that of the stock market, which shows that the current economic fundamentals have not provided a driving force for the commodity market to rise

the vigorous financial crisis in 2008 caused a huge decline in the commodity market. In 2009, the financial crisis did not see any sign of stopping. The crisis in the European banking industry once again triggered investors' concern that the financial storm would strike again. European and American stock markets plummeted, and U.S. stocks even fell below the previous adjustment low, hitting a new low in 12 years. Judging from the news received from all sides, the global economic situation is still not at dawn, or even more pessimistic

Pascal Lamy, director general of the World Trade Organization (WTO), said on the 25th that the world has not even passed half of the financial crisis and is expected to face more economic pain. Jean Michel six, chief European analyst of S & P, released a report on the 24th, pointing out that the global recession has led to a sharp contraction in export demand in Eastern Europe, and that Western European banks may tighten loans to Eastern Europe, Eastern European countries now have all the conditions that constitute a "regional crisis" "Conditions. The report points out that Eastern Europe is facing a regional crisis. However, it also emphasizes that the severity of economic problems varies among countries, so the prospects are also different. The S & P report points out that compared with other Eastern European countries, the Czech Republic, Poland and Slovakia have stronger domestic demand and are better able to withstand the negative impact of export contraction. Moreover, these countries also have low fiscal deficits and have more room to expand government spending to revitalize the economy. However, Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania and other Baltic countries, as well as Bulgaria, Hungary, Romania and other countries, due to high external debt and current account deficits, the state is quite pessimistic

it can be seen that the current situation of the global economy is still severe. Before the economy fails to get out of the trough, the demand for crude oil will not be boosted much. It is difficult to make a significant change in the relationship between supply and demand only by the reduction of OPEC production. Japan's Ministry of Finance announced on the 25th that Japan's imports of crude oil and condensate in January fell by 8% year-on-year to 18.69 million kiloliters, or 3.79 million barrels/day. In the same period, the import value of crude oil and condensate that have been cleared in yen fell by 64.2% year-on-year to 46million yen. Ministry of finance data also showed that in January, Japan's naphtha gasoline imports fell by 28.6% year-on-year to 1.5 million kiloliters of air circulation system; LNG imports fell by 0.8% year-on-year to 5.9 million tons; Coal imports fell by 8.7% year-on-year to 16.13 million tons. It can be seen that the sluggish real economy has significantly affected the demand for crude oil, and the oil price is naturally easy to fall but difficult to rise

the crisis in the European banking industry once again triggered concerns about the European economy. The euro fell sharply and the US dollar rose strongly. Unlike gold, crude oil has almost no hedging function, while gold is the king of hedging. Therefore, in the process of the strong upward movement of the US dollar, the pressure on the futures price of crude oil is more obvious, and the hedging demand of gold is significantly greater than that of the US dollar. Therefore, the strong US dollar has caused substantial pressure on the price of crude oil. This is also one of the main reasons for the sluggish crude oil price

from the above analysis, it can be seen that the crude oil futures price is currently affected by the global economy, the cement constant stress pressure testing machine and the bending and compression resistance machine of Nanxin era Gold Testing Instrument Co., Ltd. are still low, and the average maximum wind speed is (1 ~ 1.7) m/s fan, or even the outbreak of the crisis again. The demand is naturally difficult to show, and the sluggish European economy makes the US dollar relatively stronger, which also depresses the US dollar. Therefore, the futures price of crude oil is closely related to the economic situation. It is difficult for the oil price to perform well before the global economy reaches the bottom. Moreover, when the impact of the financial crisis continues to spread, some emergencies may continue to suppress the decline of oil prices. The strong dollar is also one of the choices for safe haven funds before it has a better performance in other investment fields. Japanese Prime Minister Taro Aso said on February 24 that he and U.S. President Barack Obama agreed that the dollar must remain the world's major currency, so the dollar will remain strong in the short term and will also exert pressure on oil prices. Therefore, we cannot rule out the possibility that the oil price falls below $30 or even sees $20

the author believes that there is still room for oil prices to fall before the global economy reaches the bottom, especially the US dollar. If it further strengthens, it will bring a devastating blow to crude oil. At present, there are two methods, one is photoelectric displacement sensing system cheapness. But the error is large Investors should pay attention to the performance of the Dow Jones index and the performance of the US dollar. Once the Dow Jones index stabilizes and strengthens or the US dollar begins to weaken, crude oil may recover. In addition, with the advent of summer, the impact of hurricanes in the United States will also affect crude oil, and these emergencies may also lead to a temporary rebound in crude oil prices. However, investors should still maintain the thinking of short-term, long-term and short-term until the trend has not changed

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