On July 16, the steel market predicted that the bi

2022-10-23
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On July 16, the steel market forecast: the billet operated steadily, and the rise rate of spot steel prices slowed down

I. macro briefing

1. The retail sales in the United States increased by 0.4% in June, far worse than expected. The retail sales report released by the U.S. government in June showed that the data in June increased by 0.4% month on month, which was mainly due to the strong demand of consumers for cars and the rise in gasoline prices. Due to the relatively weak sales in several important areas such as home decoration and department stores, the growth rate of 0.4% was significantly lower than the market expectation

2. The US House Committee said Bernanke's testimony would be released in advance on Wednesday. The Financial Services Committee of the house of representatives said on Monday that it would release the testimony on monetary policy prepared by Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke to attend the hearing on Wednesday at 8:30 a.m

3. GDP growth in the second quarter was 7.5%, and shanty towns and environmental protection may become a powerful tool for steady growth. It is expected that the state will hedge the decline of investment by implementing some projects that will help the national economy and the people's livelihood and can absorb overcapacity, so as to stabilize economic growth. Combined with the 12th Five Year Plan and early deployment, environmental protection, rail transit, water conservancy, energy, communication, shanty town reconstruction and other fields, as well as real estate, are expected to become the main beneficiary areas

4. In the first half of the year, the data of real estate was outstanding, and the Bureau of statistics suggested strengthening regulation. The overall economic data in the first half of the year was bleak, but real estate became the brightest star. On the 15th, data from the National Bureau of statistics showed that the national real estate development investment in the first half of this year was 3682.8 billion yuan, a nominal increase of 20.3% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 0.2 percentage points faster than the fixed asset investment of the whole society. Sheng Laiyun, spokesman of the National Bureau of statistics, said that in the later stage, it is necessary to strengthen real estate regulation in accordance with the relevant provisions of the State Council

the total investment of the new construction plan soared by nearly 50% in May and June, and the reform needs to be implemented as soon as possible. According to the data, the total investment of new projects in June is planned to be 6185.5 billion yuan, which is a step higher than that of "Thomas luedi, the managing partner of Kearney Asia Pacific Energy and chemical industry, said at the press conference that it increased by about 48% in the same period last year. At present, the biggest problem is that although the total investment of new projects in various regions is accelerated, whether it can continue to become a huge problem when the funding problem is not fully in place

II. Relevant disk summary

the US stock market closed higher on Monday, with the Dow and S & P 500 hitting another record closing high. Automatic calibration function of S & P 500 index for the eighth consecutive time: the system can automatically calibrate the accuracy of indication; It rose in the last trading day. Citigroup reported better than expected results, offsetting the adverse impact of the decline in retail sales. The Dow Jones industrial average rose 19.96 points, or 0.13%, to 15484.26; The S & P 500 index rose 2.32 points, or 0.14%, to 1682.51. Gold futures for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell, rising $5.9 to close at $1283.5 per ounce. Crude oil futures for August delivery rose $0.37 to close at $106.32 a barrel. The closing price of copper on the LME floor was $6920/ton, down $34/ton from the previous trading day

III. billet price trend

early on the 16th: Tangshan ordinary billet continued to stabilize yesterday, and it was delivered to jie3140 in Changli this morning. Tangshan Xinglong/Guoyi factory 3120 includes tax; The bare price of traders is about 3020

IV. ore price trend

yesterday, the domestic iron concentrate market remained stable as a whole, and the transaction atmosphere in local markets was acceptable. At the same time, the spot price of imported iron ore was generally stable and rose slightly, with average transaction. In the morning, some traders tried to offer higher prices, but the final transaction price reflected that there was still great resistance to the rise of spot prices. The mainstream market price of 66% acid powder dry basis excluding tax in Tangshan is 1030 yuan. At present, the mainstream quotation of 63.5/63% Indian fine ore in the external market of imported ore is about 120 US dollars. The quotation of 63.5% Indian fine ore in Tianjin port is 900 yuan/ton; The quotation of 61.5% PB fine ore in Qingdao port is 880 yuan/ton. On the previous trading day, Platts 62%, $129.00, +$1.00

v. coke price trend

domestic coke price was weak and stable yesterday. Due to the impact of environmental protection, the coking plant is relatively affected by the steel plant, and the coking plant has a strong willingness to stabilize temporarily, mainly by raising prices. Although the steel plant intends to reduce the purchase price, the coking plant has a poor willingness to supply at a low price. Coupled with the financial problems of the steel plant, the coke market may be stable for the time being. At present, the first-class metallurgical coke in Shanxi is 1250 yuan/ton; The ex factory tax price of quasi first-class metallurgical coke is 1160 yuan; Hebei Handan secondary metallurgical coke 1160 yuan; The ex factory tax price of secondary metallurgical coke in Huaibei area is 1220 yuan; The ex factory tax price of secondary metallurgical coke in Zibo area is 1220 yuan

VI. close of thread hot coil

close on July 15, the closing price of 25mm grade III thread steel in Beijing market was 3460 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from the previous day; The price of grade III deformed steel bars in Shanghai market was 3490 yuan/ton, the same as that of the previous day; The third grade deformed steel bar in Guangzhou market was 3670 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from the previous day

at the close of July 15, the closing price of 5.5mmq235 hot rolled coil in Shanghai market was 3590 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous day; The closing price of hot coil in Tianjin market was 3500 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous day; Lecong hot coil market closed at 3750 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous day

On July 15, the main contract 1401 of screw futures opened higher than the settlement price of the previous trading day, opening at 3666 yuan. After opening, it fluctuated slightly, and fell in the late trading. The highest was 3694 yuan, and the lowest was 3659 yuan. Finally, it closed at 3661 yuan, up 6 yuan from the previous trading day, and finally closed at a small negative line. The trading volume increased by 23470 hands compared with the previous trading day. Today's price pressure point is expected to be 3700 yuan/ton, and the support point is expected to be 3635 yuan/ton

on July 15, rb1309, the main contract of hot coil electronic disk, opened at 3640 yuan. After the opening, it rose violently, reaching a maximum of 3670 yuan and a minimum of 3631 yuan. Finally, it closed at 3660 yuan, up 18 yuan from the settlement price of the previous trading day, and finally closed at the positive line. The trading volume was 150880 hands, which was enlarged compared with the previous trading day, and the position was 194930 hands, an increase of 1810 hands. Today's price pressure point is expected to be 3668 yuan/ton, and the support point is expected to be 3630 yuan/ton

VIII 3. Reverse the metallographic microscope and cannot clean the surface of other parts with organic solution. The spot price forecast

it is estimated that the price of 25mm grade III deformed steel bar in Beijing market today is stable, at 3460 yuan/ton; The quotation of grade III deformed steel bar in Shanghai market increased by 10 yuan/ton to 3500 yuan/ton; The market price of grade III deformed steel bar in Guangzhou market increased by 20 yuan/ton, and the quotation was 3690 yuan/ton

it is expected that the mainstream quotation of 5.5mmq235 hot rolled coil in Shanghai market today will rise by 20 yuan/ton, at about 3610 yuan/ton; The listing price of hot coil in Tianjin market increased by 10 yuan/ton to 3510 yuan/ton; Lecong's hot coil quotation rose by 20 yuan/ton, and the market quotation was about 3770 yuan/ton

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